There's a familiar pattern whenever Prince Harry returns to the UK: a visit intended to focus on his charities or his legal battles quickly becomes another public test of his relationship with the royal family.
This time, a five-day trip has kicked off confusing and contradictory briefings about why Harry will not spend a night at Buckingham Palace, despite his team announcing that he had accepted a formal invitation from the King to do so.
Before the Duke has even touched down in the UK, the spectre of his fractious relations with the monarchy have cast a long shadow over everything else he has lined up.
For all the recent reports that he and the King speak regularly, this episode hardly suggests their relationship is as open and trusting as it would need to be for there to be genuine reconciliation.
The back-and-forth discussion that played out in public
The offer of Palace accommodation had been on the table for Harry for several weeks, but until Saturday, he had not formally accepted it. In fact, he formally declined the offer on Saturday morning, only to change his mind later that day, when he was told it was no longer on the table.
Harry's team say he accepted an offer to stay at Buckingham Palace as soon as it was practical to do so, once he had made alternative security arrangements following the rejection of his request for police protection for himself, Meghan and their children Prince Archie and Princess Lilibet.
© InstagramThe counter-argument is that until late Saturday he had not only failed to accept the offer, but had suggested that it was not suitable accommodation. A deadline to allow enough time for him to be hosted appropriately, and for the right staff to be moved into place, had passed.
Palace insiders appeared baffled as to why Harry's team suggested that he had formally accepted the offer when the Duke himself knew it had come too late.
Whether that points to a failure of communication between Harry and his team, or a misunderstanding between both sides, it has created a public back-and-forth over arrangements that should have been private and has muddied the water before the trip has even begun.
Threats to Harry's life
Harry's security concerns are real. ITV News has reported that his private security team are aware of at least six alleged plots against him by jihadist and right-wing individuals. Among the documents they submitted to his long-running security review was one outlining an al-Qaeda document calling for his assassination.
The police are also said to be aware of some 500 potential stalkers of the royal family, with around half having demonstrated a threat to Harry, Meghan and their children, according to ITV.
This helps explain why Meghan and the children will not join him in London, although they may travel to be with him later in the week, with Althorp, the ancestral home of Harry's mother Diana, Princess of Wales, tipped as a possible base.
Sources say the threat is greater in the capital, where it is also harder for them to move around discreetly.
Optics and Harry's court case
The Buckingham Palace decision was not, however, solely about security or logistics. Timing was also a factor.
Harry had requested to stay on Tuesday night - hours after the expected High Court ruling in his case against Associated Newspapers Ltd.
© Getty ImagesIt's not hard to see why the optics of the King's son returning to monarchy HQ immediately after responding to the judgment in one of his most high-profile legal battles might have caused officials some concern.
The monarch cannot influence the courts, thanks to the separation of powers in the UK. But symbolism matters.
A ruling in Harry's favour, followed by an overnight stay at the Palace, might risk creating the impression that lines had been blurred.
A ruling against him might prove equally awkward. Last year, after losing his security case, Harry described the outcome as a "good old-fashioned establishment stitch-up," a sentiment the King would naturally want to distance himself from.
The royal family has wanted no part in his very public crusade against the media and any distance it hopes to keep from it would be altered by the image of the King's son taking that outcome to the symbolic heart of the monarchy.
The real state of their relationship
But the most striking part of this row is not the constitutional caution, but the apparent absence of a private channel strong enough to prevent more public fallout.
The King has been open to the possibility of rebuilding a relationship with Harry, unlike the Prince of Wales, for whom the door remains firmly shut.
© Samir Hussein/WireImageIndeed, father and son are said to have discussed the trip and logistics privately. I gather Harry has also been in contact with his father's office.
But repairing their relationship will take more than calls and messages. There needs to be trust and confidence that a family arrangement can stay private. The way this particular one has blown up shows just how much work there is still to do.
