The birth of Princess Eugenie's daughter this week is a golden moment of good news for a Princess in the midst of a popularity crunch. Admirers of the Princess and her older sister, Beatrice, will hope that this will revivify their reputations after a poll last week showed how the public turned against them.
Much as I would like to share that hope, I think it is far-fetched. Here is why.
The collapse in popularity for Beatrice and Eugenie was extraordinarily large. Since YouGov started their royal favourability polls 15 years ago, there have only been two occasions when family members have lost favour so abruptly.
One was when their father, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, went from being widely disliked to being a pariah after his disastrous Newsnight interview, when he discussed his friendship with the late billionaire sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
The other was when the Duke and Duchess of Sussex announced that they were stepping back from royal duties. Prior to this moment, dubbed Megxit, the number of people who liked Meghan was greater than those who disliked her. Megxit reversed this and she has remained "net negative" ever since.
What changed to cause this sudden decline?
Until July, the Princesses had largely avoided being tarnished by revelations about their father's closeness to Epstein.
Since YouGov first started asking people how they felt about Beatrice and Eugenie in 2024, they had always attracted more positive views than negative ones and their support was stable. For every poll, more than a third of people liked them and fewer than a quarter disliked them.
Their "net positivity" score - the percentage of people who liked them minus the percentage who didn't - never dipped below +12 and was sometimes as high as +22. This puts them on a par with Prince Edward before he became Duke of Edinburgh and Queen Camilla when she enjoyed her highest level of support after the coronation.
© Photo: Getty ImagesThen came revelations from the Epstein files, including reports in February that Sarah Ferguson had taken the Princesses to have lunch with Epstein days after his release from prison for prostituting minors.
Their father, who denies wrongdoing, seemed to be the subject of a photograph of a man on all fours crouching over a young woman. Then, on his 66th birthday, he was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office. Pollsters often talk about stories that "cut through" to the public. This one was on the front page of every newspaper in the western world.
© AFP via Getty ImagesTo compound their woes, Eugenie stepped down as patron of the charity Anti-Slavery International and both sisters were named in a government report on royal residences noting that they enjoy homes in London palaces at a below-market rent, funded by the King's personal income.
Plunge into negativity
The July poll marks the first time more people dislike Beatrice and Eugenie. Their net positivity scores are respectively -4 and -5.
Who deserted the Princesses? Usually, in a crisis, members of the royal family can rely on the loyalty of some groups above others. Women, pensioners, the middle classes, Conservative voters and residents of the South of England are all consistently pro-royal.
If these groups turn against you, then it makes bouncing back far more difficult.
Women quit
While men were already teetering on the edge of disliking the Princesses more than they liked them (+5), women had been comfortably positive (+19). In the July poll, both groups dropped into negativity. Although women still like them more, they dropped by a galling 27 points.
Southerners drop their HRHs
Before the fall, only in Scotland did critics outnumber sympathisers. Now, every region is net negative including the South of England, their staunchest supporters, who only a year ago were +28 but are now -2.
Class act
People in both the upper and lower socio-economic groups flipped from positive to negative in July. Middle class respondents (traditionally known as ABC1) dropped by almost the same amount as working class ones.
Pensioners remain on side
Before July, only the youngest respondents (age 18-24) were net negative. They have now been joined by all working-age people, leaving only those aged 65 and over feeling more sympathetic than not. But this does not mean that the oldest age group were unmoved. Their support fell from +30 to single figures.
Blues remain true
Only Reform voters were net negative before the most recent poll, but they have been joined by Labour and Liberal Democrat voters. Tory voters remain onside but fell by a greater amount than Labour or Lib Dem supporters.
Baby bounce?
You may think that Eugenie's baby joy should generate some sympathy but there are reasons to doubt this. Eugenie, 36, fell just as far as Beatrice, who turns 38 on Sunday, even though she was heavily pregnant. Indeed, Eugenie has always polled slightly worse than her older sister, perhaps because Beatrice's name is more relatable.
© Jack BrooksbankIs it fair?
For what it's worth, I think this is unfair on Beatrice and Eugenie. They were 21 and 19 when they visited Epstein – old enough to make their own decisions but young enough to be pressured by their mother.
Their homes in royal palaces are a bad look. On the face of it, they are receiving royal privileges without being working royals. The family might counter that they can't rent out Beatrice's flat at St James's Palace or Eugenie's cottage at Kensington Palace to just anyone, and the residences might as well be used, with the King's personal funds paying towards their upkeep, rather than lie vacant.
Will the poll make a difference to how the King treats them? The sisters have been notably absent from royal events they have previously attended. They avoided Royal Ascot, the royal Easter Sunday service at Windsor, the royal box at Cheltenham Festival, Trooping the Colour and the summer garden parties at Buckingham Palace.
But I would still expect them to be welcome at Balmoral this month, if Eugenie were planning to fly from Portugal with a newborn, and at Sandringham at Christmas.
