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I'm an awards expert and these are my Oscars 2024 predictions

The 2024 Oscars will take place on March 10, 2024 on ABC at 7/6c 


Lily Gladstone, Ryan Gosling and Cillian Murphy in character from their movies Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie and Oppenheimer
Rebecca Lewis
Rebecca Lewis - Los Angeles
Los Angeles correspondentLos Angeles
7 March 2024
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Predicting the Oscars is a fool's game — so of course I'm going to give it a shot! 

I'm HELLO!'s US correspondent working in the industry covering awards for 10 years and it's safe to say this year's race has felt wrapped up for several weeks for almost all but one or two categories.  Still, never count the Oscars out for some drama and unexpected winners – who can forget Anthony Hopkins over Chadwick Boseman, Olivia Colman over Glenn Close, and Crash over Brokeback Mountain? So let's take a look at the nominees at who I predict will be taking home a Little Gold Man… 

Best Picture: 

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Holdovers, Zone of Interest 

Emma Stone and Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things
Emma Stone and Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things

The writing was on the wall for Barbie when Greta Gerwig failed to get a Best Director nod, and Margot Robbie was kept out of the Best Actress category. Poor Things has had some steam with Emma Stone's wins for Best Actress but it has failed to take home anything major since the Golden Globes, and although The Holdovers has had success with the acting categories, it hasn't had the same impact across other major categories. 

I wouldn't rule out a surprising scoop from Anatomy of a Fall, which also got Best Director (Justine Triet) and Best Actress (Sandra Huller) nods, but it feels very much like Oppenheimer is already engraved on the statue after sweeping every awards show starting with the Golden Globes in January. 

cillian murphy in oppenheimer© Instagram/Universal
Cillian Murphy portrays American theoretical physicist, J. Robert Oppenheimer

Who should win: Oppenheimer

Who will win: Oppenheimer

Best Actor: 

Nominees: Bradley Cooper, Cillian Murphy, Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright

Paul Giamatti's Golden Globes win and then Critics Choice award sparked an immediate conversation over whether assumed frontrunner Cillian Murphy had competition, but in the months since, Cillian has pulled ahead. 

Personally I thought Jeffrey's performance in American Fiction was a career best, but at this point, I'm sure even the bookies have stopped taking bets on Cillian winning this one, and rightfully so, as the Irish actor's work spanning eras in Oppenheimer is sublime, bringing the many contradictory facets of a controversial man to life.

Cillian Murphy as Robert J Oppenheimer in Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer© Instagram/Universal
Cillian Murphy as Robert J Oppenheimer in Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer

Who should win: Cillian Murphy 

Who will win: Cillian Murphy 

Best Actress: 

Nominees: Annette Bening, Carey Mulligan, Emma Stone, Lily Gladstone, Sandra Huller

Anette has hardly been campaigning, although she is so beloved a sneak win would be a surprise but not a shock, while Carey and Sandra seem to have just enjoyed the ride of this awards season. 

Leonardo DiCaprio as Ernest Burkhart helps Lily Gladstone as Mollie Burkhart into a car© Apple
Leonardo DiCaprio and Lily Gladstone star as Ernest and Mollie Burkhart

But this is all down to Emma and Lily, and right now I'd hedge my bets with Killers of the Flower Moon's Lily, especially after her SAG win. The actress has an aura that has had industry folks flocking to meet her when she walks into a room, while her acceptance speeches have been not only heartfelt but impactful, as she begins each one in Blackfeet (her tribal language). 

Who should win: Lily Gladstone

Who will win: Lily Gladstone

Best Supporting Actor 

Nominees: Mark Ruffalo, Robert de Niro, Ryan Gosling, Robert Downey Jr, Sterling K Brown 

Ryan Gosling plays Ken in the movie
Ryan Gosling plays Ken in the movie

This race should be much tighter than it is: Robert Downey Jr, Sterling K. Brown and Ryan Gosling should all be on the edge of their seats at awards shows, wondering who will win that statue. I couldn't take my eyes off Sterling in American Fiction while Ryan's role as Ken in Barbie is hands down his best ever, with the 43-year-old perfectly capturing Ken's himbo spirit while also infusing him with personality and depth, and leaving the audience feeling empathy for the Kens as well.

Yet it's been Robert Downey Jr who has taken home every statue since the Globes in January, and in fairness, his work in Oppenheimer is truly something to see.

Robert Downey Jr in Oppenheimer© Universal
Robert Downey Jr in Oppenheimer

However, I also think this season for RDJ is one of those moments where an acclaimed Hollywood actor gets to prove that he is a "real" actor, and not just a Marvel star – even if his performances as Tony Stark have long been Oscar-worthy themselves. 

Who should win: Ryan Gosling

Who will win: Robert Downey Jr 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: America Ferrera, Danielle Brooks, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Emily Blunt, Jodie Foster 

I wouldn't be mad if America picked this one up on the night, but the award feels like Da'Vine's to lose at this point. 

Da'Vine Joy as Mary Lamb in The Holdovers© Focus Features
Da'Vine Joy as Mary Lamb in The Holdovers

Da'Vine, an award-winning Broadway actress, stars in The Holdovers and has won every major award this season - and if she doesn't win? It will be the first time (and someone, please correct me if I am wrong) since Russell Crowe cleaned the house for A Beautiful Mind in 2002 but lost the Oscar to Denzel Washington. 

Who should win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Who will win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph

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