The top cardinals in contention to succeed Pope Francis — and what a conclave really is


Ralph Fiennes' Oscar-winning Conclave is slowly becoming a reality


Pope Francis waves to thousands of followers as he arrives at the Manila Cathedral on January 16, 2015 in Manila, Philippines. Pope Francis will visit venues across Leyte and Manila during his visit to the Philippines from January 15 - 19. The visit is expected to attract crowds in the millions as Filipino Catholics flock to catch a glimpse of the leader of the Catholic Church in the Philippines for the first time since 1995. The Pope will begin the tour in Manila, then travelling to Tacloban to visit areas devastated by Typhoon Haiyan before returning to Manila to hold a mass at Rizal Park. The Philippines is the only Catholic majority nation in Asia with around 90 percent of the population professing the faith© Getty Images
Ahad SanwariSenior Writer - New York
April 24, 2025
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The passing of Pope Francis on April 21 at the age of 88 has launched the search for someone to ascend to the position of the head of the Catholic Church.

A papal conclave is expected to convene to elect the new pope to succeed Francis, and will be kicking off much sooner than you'd think.

Here's what you need to know about the top projected contenders to become the next pope, what a papal conclave entails, and how many similarities it really bears to the Oscar-winning Conclave

The top cardinals

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The Vatican's Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin is considered the top candidate for pope

The Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin is considered by many to be the favorite for the title as the Vatican's secretary of state under Pope Francis, his chief advisor. His views have been considerably moderate, praising the global appeal of catholicism while criticizing the legalization of same-sex marriage.

For the first time in 1500 years, a pope could come from Africa, with Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, and Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu among the top picks. All three lean traditionally catholic, although Cardinal Turkson was considered a favorite in the papal conclave that elected Pope Francis in 2013.

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Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines is one of the top picks among progressives

Cardinal Peter Erdo from Hungary has twice led the Council of European Bishops' Conferences and is considered a favorite among more conservative options, particularly for his stances against same-sex marriage and migrants, diametrically opposing Francis.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines is the top pick from Asia, seen by many as a more moderate pick due to his sympathy for the LGBTQ+ community, divorcees, migrants and single mothers, although has a firm stance against abortion rights.

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The pope could be from Africa for the first time, among them Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

The Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet is the "dark horse" pick due to having been a favorite for the position in both 2005 and 2013. However, due to his age, the 80-year-old cardinal cannot vote in the conclave itself (only cardinals under 80 can vote). He is known for his more modern outlook, and even called for greater involvement of women in the Catholic Church.

What is a conclave?

A papal conclave comprises the convening of the College of Cardinals to debate and elect the next head of the Catholic Church, taking place at the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City.

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An analysis of a conclave

All cardinals under the age of 80 are allowed to vote, with the dean usually officiating the election process. This year, both the dean and vice dean of the College are over the age of 80, so the seniormost cardinal bishop under 80, Cardinal Parolin, will oversee the election. A two-thirds majority supervote is required to elect the next pope.

When will the conclave be held?

The conclave is held between 15 to 20 days after the pope's death, when the episcopal see becomes vacant to convene. This year, that will be between May 5 and 11.

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A look inside the papal conclave from 2005

How similar is a real conclave to the film Conclave?

As it turns out, quite a bit! A lot of Edward Berger's Oscar winner actually proved to be very similar to what an actual papal conclave looks like, given writer Peter Straughan met with a real cardinal and visited the Vatican to get an idea of their procedures.

The process does remain essentially the same, with the cardinals convening and voting over rounds to determine the next pope. The 2013 papal conclave took two days and five ballots, with the process of sending out black smoke to communicate that no successor had been chosen being accurate as well.

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Edward Berger's 2024 film "Conclave" is a depiction of what that process looks like

Granted, the same amount of mystery and intrigue does not always appear as much as a Hollywood production, but debates often emerge on what the prevailing church prioritizes in terms of belief systems, global issues and matters of representation.

Geography plays an important role in the selection of the pope, which is why several of this particular conclave's top candidates come from outside the western world of Europe and the Americas.

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