Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has been the film to beat at the 2026 Oscars for months. But when nominations day dawned, the race was split wide open when Ryan Coogler's vampire genre film Sinners broke Academy history with an incredible 16 nominations, outperforming predictions and suggesting Ryan and Sinners have serious goodwill behind them.
I've been covering awards season for 12 years now, and the snubs never get easier. I was shocked to see Wicked: For Good snubbed entirely, even across below-the-line categories, while Paul Mescal missed out on a nod for Hamnet, leaving Jessie Buckley the only real hopeful for Chloe Zhao's adaptation.
Surprises for me were nominations for Emma Stone in Best Actress for Bugonia and that film's inclusion in Best Picture, Kate Hudson's nod for Song Sung Blue, and Ethan Hawke in Best Actor, all of which have shaken up the race.
But who will win? My predictions are below but keep checking back as we update based on the season plays out….
Best Picture
Nominations: Bugonia F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle after Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
Predicted winner: One Battle After Another
As of writing, Best Picture seems like it is One Battle After Another's to lose.
One Battle After Another, a dark comedy about ex-revolutionaries, earned 13 nominations including nods in Best Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, and two for Supporting Actor, proving it's won over Academy voters.
Hamnet only has one nod in the acting categories, for Jessie Buckley, making its chances a long-shot despite its Golden Globes win and Frankenstein missed a nod for its director Guilleromo del Toro which has historically been tough to overcome; only three films have managed this achievement in the last 30 years, CODA (2021), Green Book (2018), and Argo (2012).
However, Chase Infiniti's snub in Best Actress hints there is room for a challenger – don't rule out Sinners just yet.
Best Director
Nominations: Chloé Zhao, Josh Safdie, Paul Thomas Anderson, Joachim Trier, Ryan Coogler
Predicted winner: Paul Thomas Anderson
PTA has been nominated 14 times across all categories, and this is his fourth for Best Director (he was also nominated for There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza).
He is deeply respected across all the guilds, and his work behind the camera for One Battle After Another is some of his best.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominations: Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Michael B Jordan, Wagner Moura
Predicted winner: Timothee Chalamet
The momentum has been leading towards Timothee winning his first Best Actor Oscar after three nominations – he is now the youngest actor to ever receive three nods in this category.
But keep an eye on the conversation around Ethan Hawke. The little film that could, Blue Moon, snuck in two Oscar nominations, and if he keeps playing the circuit in the coming weeks, it may give him the boost he needs.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
© Agata GrzybowskaNominations: Jessie Buckley, Rose Byrne, Kate Hudson, Renate Reinsve, Emma Stone
Predicted winner: Jessie Buckley
Jessie is an undeniable tour de force in Hamnet as Agnes, the wife of Will Shakespeare in Chloe Zhao's stunning meditation on art and grief.
This feels like Jessie's to lose.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominations: Benicio Del Toro, Jacob Elordi, Delroy Lindo, Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård
Predicted winner: Stellan Skarsgård
This is the category where things still feel up in the air, despite Stellan's Globes win.
Sean and Benicio may split the One Battle After Another fans, and although Stellan's performance in Sentimental Value remains the frontrunner, it is Delroy – considered on the edge of the final five before nominations day — who shakes things up properly and makes this one to watch.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominations: Elle Fanning, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Amy Madigan, Wunmi Mosaku, Teyana Taylor
Predicted winner: Teyana Taylor
Much like Jessie, this is Teyana's to lose.
Teyana has been playing the game beautifully this awards season, making the rounds to the various parties and teas, and giving one of the best speeches of the night at the Globes which always helps when Oscars voters are thinking about who will say what at their ceremony.
Saying that, keep an eye on Amy Madigan….
